Cleveland, Cleveland. It’s almost not fair.
Baker Mayfield is having a two-week renaissance with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Deshaun Watson is having a continuous slumber through eight starts as the Browns quarterback. Mayfield is ranked among the best quarterbacks through Week 2. As for Watson, an AFC North rival saved him from being the worst.
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It’s one of the many intriguing factoids to emerge from the NFL quarterback community after the first two weeks of the 2023 season.
Here’s my weekly look at how quarterbacks stand using traditional statistics like passer rating, along with advanced metrics like Expected Points Added per dropback, to provide a number-based outlook of the state of the position.
I’ll also give a sneak peek at the upcoming matchups using EPA per dropback for the quarterbacks and the defenses they will face.
(Quarterbacks are listed by overall EPA per dropback rankings, via TruMedia)
GO DEEPER
Vic's Picks, Week 3: Tua Tagovailoa keeps playing like an MVP
Nos. 1-8
player | EPA/DB OVR | EPA/DB wk2 | Psr rtg OVR | psr rtg wk2 |
---|---|---|---|---|
0.45 (1) | 0.25 (10) | 102.9 (7) | 92.2 (20) | |
0.33 (2) | 0.29 (6) | 118.8 (1) | 113.5 (7) | |
0.20 (3) | 0.24 (11) | 98.7 (11) | 112.2 (9) | |
0.17 (4) | -0.01 (22) | 77.4 (24) | 67.8 (29) | |
0.17 (5) | 0.29 (5) | 109.0 (3) | 121.8 (4) | |
0.16 (6) | 0.19 (15) | 102.0 (9) | 104.2 (13) | |
0.16 (7) | 0.34 (1) | 104.4 (5) | 114.5 (6) | |
0.16 (8) | 0.20 (14) | 102.9 (8) | 93.1 (19) |
Tua Tagovailoa set the bar pretty high for himself heading into Week 2. The Miami Dolphins quarterback only produced the highest EPA rate (0.60) of his career in Week 1 against the Los Angeles Chargers. Still, his 0.25 rate in Miami’s Week 2 win over the New England Patriots is top-notch. Tagovailoa was only pressured on 18.8 percent of his dropbacks in Week 2. For the season, Tua’s opposing pressure rate sits at 25.6 percent, which makes him one of the least-pressured QBs in the league.
Another week in which we find Green Bay Packers quarterback Jordan Love sitting among the top quarterback EPA rates. And I’m not sure too many people would have pegged Love as the top QB in passer rating through two weeks, either. That completion percentage still worries me, though, at 55.8 percent overall after a 56.0-percent outing in the loss to the Atlanta Falcons.
Dak Prescott looked rather impressive against a typically stout New York Jets defense in Week 2. The Dallas Cowboys didn’t need much from him in the Week 1 blowout of the New York Giants, but he thrived with an increased workload against the Jets, going 31-of-38 passing for 255 yards, two touchdowns and no interceptions. For perspective, a 0.24 rate for a season would have ranked No. 2 in last year’s rankings behind only Patrick Mahomes.
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The Los Angeles Rams’ Matthew Stafford remains this high on the overall EPA rankings thanks to Week 1. Two interceptions, one TD and 307 yards on 55 attempts in the loss to the San Francisco 49ers pushed his Week 2 rate toward the bottom half of the league. He certainly likes throwing to rookie Puka Nacua at a record-breaking pace, though.
Old Jared Goff might not have rebounded after throwing a fourth-quarter pick six in the loss to the Seattle Seahawks. But the Detroit Lions passer led two scoring drives after the turnover to at least send the game to overtime. His Week 2 — and overall — numbers scream excellent quarterback play. Remember, Goff ended last season fourth in EPA rate and seventh in passer rating. He’s right there once again.
Another squandered day for the Los Angeles Chargers’ Justin Herbert. The numbers are all pointing up for the freshly-paid quarterback after Herbert finished last season with career lows in EPA rate (0.04) and passer rating (93.2). But not getting it done in the final moments of losses in Week 1 against the Dolphins and Week 2 against the Tennessee Titans have diminished the luster of his overall stat line this season.
How did Mayfield get here? I’m as surprised as anyone to find the Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback rising up the charts. Where he really excelled in the Week 2 win over the Chicago Bears was against the blitz. His 1.60 EPA rate against an added pass rush was the best single-game rate of his career. It’s also the seventh-best single-game rate of any QB over the past two seasons.
Reviews weren’t exactly glowing for Brock Purdy in Week 2. But the 49ers have the luxury of not needing exceptional games from Purdy every week to win. The team’s Week 2 triumph over the Rams was Purdy’s first regular-season start without a touchdown pass.
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(UPDATE: Purdy thrived against the New York Giants in Week 3 producing a 0.35 EPA rate and a 111.3 passer rating in Thursday night’s win. This moves Purdy’s overall EPA rate to 0.23 and passer rating to 106.3.)
Nos. 9-16
player | EPA/DB OVR | EPA/DB wk2 | Psr rtg OVR | psr rtg wk2 |
---|---|---|---|---|
0.15 (9) | 0.30 (4) | 104.1 (6) | 116.3 (5) | |
0.15 (10) | -0.16 (26) | 89.2 (18) | 68.9 (27) | |
0.13 (11) | 0.21 (13) | 114.2 (2) | 125.6 (1) | |
0.12 (12) | 0.27 (7) | 94.5 (13) | 124.5 (2) | |
0.11 (13) | 0.15 (16) | 108.5 (4) | 107.3 (12) | |
0.08 (14) | 0.26 (9) | 99.5 (10) | 112.8 (8) | |
0.01 (15) | 0.06 (20) | 88.1 (20) | 98.1 (17) | |
0.01 (16) | 0.32 (2) | 89.5 (17) | 99.9 (16) |
The Geno Smith thrill ride brought all the good feels in the Seahawks’ win over the Lions. He rediscovered all the numbers in Week 2 that made him successful last season, including a 78.0 percent completion percentage in Detroit. Smith’s 0.30 EPA rate and 116.3 passer rating were his third- and fourth-best performances, respectively, in the past two seasons.
Jimmy Garoppolo’s EPA rate tumbled down after a 0.41 mark in Week 1 against the Denver Broncos. This happened despite the Buffalo Bills only pressuring Garoppolo on 16 percent of his dropbacks during the Las Vegas Raiders’ Week 2 loss. This was Garoppolo’s third-worst single-game EPA rate and second-lowest passer rating in the past three seasons.
Same story, different week for the Minnesota Vikings’ Kirk Cousins. Elite passer rating, very good EPA rate, another loss — this time to the Philadelphia Eagles. Until the Vikings can hang on to the football and stop the run on defense, you might need to get used to Cousins’ numbers going for naught.
Nothing like facing the Raiders defense to bring back Josh Allen’s mojo. The Bills quarterback completed 83.8 percent of his passes in the team’s Week 2 win. It’s the second-highest single-game completion percentage of his career. As a result, Allen leads the league in completion percentage through two weeks.
Denver Broncos coach Sean Payton, again, was pulling no punches. This time, Russell Wilson received the public criticism after the team’s Week 2 loss to the Washington Commanders. A Hail Mary heave helped Wilson’s EPA rate and passer rating, but he only finished with a 56.3 completion percentage in Week 2.
Lamar Jackson certainly appeared to have a firm grasp of the Baltimore Ravens’ new offensive system. Jackson’s Week 2 EPA rate and passer rating in the team’s Week 2 win over the Cincinnati Bengals were his third-best single-game numbers in the last three seasons. You have to like his distribution in the passing game as well with six different pass-catchers tallying at least three receptions.
In a week of quarterback bonanzas, Patrick Mahomes produced average numbers relative to his peers. It’s not like his Week 2 rates against the Jacksonville Jaguars were bad by any means. Those rates would have been top-10 numbers in Week 1. The Kansas City Chiefs passer targeted 12 pass-catchers and connected with 11 of them in the Week 2 win.
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Joshua Dobbs tried hindering the Arizona Cardinals’ hopes and dreams of landing USC quarterback Caleb Williams against the New York Giants. Dobbs made the Cardinals look like a viable offense. Or maybe it was thanks to the Giants’ defense. Regardless, Dobbs is lurking in the middle of the pack in EPA rate and passer rating after two weeks.
Nos. 17-24
player | EPA/DB OVR | EPA/DB wk2 | Psr rtg OVR | psr rtg wk2 |
---|---|---|---|---|
-0.01 (17) | 0.21 (12) | 95.0 (12) | 108.8 (11) | |
-0.02 (18) | 0.09 (18) | 93.1 (14) | 79.8 (24) | |
-0.03 (19) | -0.15 (25) | 80.2 (22) | 65.5 (30) | |
-0.05 (20) | 0.14 (17) | 91.2 (16) | 103.5 (15) | |
-0.07 (21) | 0.14 (N/A) | 78.2 (23) | 75.4 (N/A) | |
-0.10 (22) | 0.27 (8) | 72.9 (25) | 103.5 (14) | |
-0.12 (23) | -0.09 (24) | 88.3 (19) | 84.5 (23) | |
-0.13 (24) | -0.07 (23) | 93.1 (15) | 98.0 (18) |
Are you a believer in Sam Howell and/or Desmond Ridder? The bandwagon door sits wide open for both of them. The Commanders are 2-0 with Howell, a 2022 fifth-round pick. As are the Falcons with Ridder, a 2022 third-round pick. Washington seems to put more on Howell’s shoulders compared to Ridder. Howell compiled a near-perfect 155.8 passer rating (158.3 is perfect). Ridder did complete more passes in Week 2 (19) than he attempted in Week 1 (18).
There’s still a level of discomfort for Derek Carr two games into his New Orleans Saints career. Granted, the Saints are 2-0 for the first time since 2013. But Carr is still getting the feel of things. His overall EPA rate dropped from 0.09 after Week 1 to -0.03 after Week 2. His overall passer rating went from 96.1 after Week 1 to 80.2 after Week 2. His 58.3 completion percentage against the Carolina Panthers was more reminiscent of his 2022 Raiders days. In critical moments, though, his receivers (Chris Olave, Michael Thomas, Rashid Shaheed) all came up big for him.
CJ Stroud may have produced one of the quieter 384-yard, two-TD, no-interception games in recent memory. At this point, you’re looking for building-block moments from the Houston Texans rookie. This outing for the 2023 No. 2 pick against the Indianapolis Colts in Week 2 would qualify.
Two games for Anthony Richardson. Some promising moments, but two starts the Colts rookie couldn’t finish because of separate injuries. He jumpstarted Indy with two rushing TDs before leaving Week 2 with a concussion, then Gardner Minshew filled in very well (0.32 EPA rate, 112.1 passer rating).
Daniel Jones went from being the league’s piñata inside the pocket in the first six quarters of the 2023 season to having one of the best halves of football in the opening two weeks. The Giants quarterback amassed a 0.85 EPA rate in the comeback win over the Cardinals. It was the second-highest, second-half EPA rate this season behind Love in Week 1. Jones also compiled a 149.8 passer rating in the final 30 minutes.
(UPDATE: Jones struggled against the 49ers in Week 3 with a -0.24 EPA rate and a 64.2 passer rating. This drops his overall EPA rate to -0.14 and passer rating to 70.0.)
The Patriots’ Mac Jones maintained his consistently blah output. Jones has done just enough to stay right above the bottom 25 percent of the league’s qualified passers in EPA rate and passer rating through two weeks. He’s faced two good teams in the Eagles and the Dolphins in two weeks, but for the Patriots to hang in there in the AFC East, blah will likely only bring a mediocre record at best.
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Pretty strange to think Jalen Hurts’ Week 2 numbers “improved” his overall rates to -0.13 and 93.1, respectively. His accuracy stands among the league’s best, though, as his 71.4 completion percentage ranks sixth. He’s still the man when it comes to rushing TDs for a QB after sneaking in the end zone twice in the win over the Vikings. But it’s not like the Eagles have needed Hurts to be great the first two weeks, especially considering the way Philly trucked through Minnesota on the ground.
Nos. 25-32
player | EPA/DB OVR | EPA/DB wk2 | Psr rtg OVR | psr rtg wk2 |
---|---|---|---|---|
-0.14 (25) | -0.19 (27) | 70.7 (26) | 61.1 (31) | |
-0.17 (26) | 0.08 (19) | 69.9 (28) | 123.3 (3) | |
-0.24 (27) | -0.33 (30) | 53.3 (32) | 38.1 (32) | |
-0.25 (28) | -0.26 (28) | 66.6 (31) | 87.1 (21) | |
-0.26 (29) | 0.04 (21) | 70.6 (27) | 85.6 (22) | |
-0.29 (30) | -0.29 (29) | 84.1 (21) | 68.8 (28) | |
-0.34 (31) | -0.38 (31) | 69.1 (30) | 70.3 (26) | |
-0.41 (32) | -0.46 (32) | 69.7 (29) | 71.8 (25) |
The only real plus of the Bears’ Justin Fields in Week 2 came in pressure percentage. Fields watched the rate fall to 38.9 percent in the loss to the Bucs, which was much lower than the 54.2 percent rate he faced in the Week 1 loss to Green Bay. Meanwhile, his other rates dropped in Week 2 for the wrong reasons:
- Week 1: -0.10 EPA per dropback, 78.2 passer rating, 64.9 completion percentage
- Week 2: -0.19 EPA per dropback, 61.1 passer rating, 55.2 completion percentage
Ryan Tannehill would have improved his career-low 28.8 passer rating against the Saints in Week 1 had he thrown every ball into the ground for an incompletion in Week 2. Seriously. His rating would have been 39.6 if that happened. Luckily for the Titans, Tannehill improved his passer rating by nearly 100 points in the win over the Chargers.
The Cowboys defense ate up both New York quarterbacks in the span of two weeks. Granted, it was Zach Wilson in Week 2 for the Jets rather than Aaron Rodgers. Wilson’s 38.1 passer rating was the second-lowest in a game in his career. His -0.33 EPA rate was only his 10th worst as the Jets starter. Wilson’s 44.4 completion percentage was his third worst.
The NFL seems a little too big for the Panthers’ Bryce Young through two weeks. Outside of Carolina’s final possession, the Saints defense flummoxed Young in Week 2. Young went 8-of-10 passing in the final drive with a TD pass to Adam Thielen to boost his passer rating and Week 2 completion percentage (66.7). But Young has experienced the most growing pains so far among the top three QBs taken in the 2023 NFL Draft.
Will the real Joe Burrow please stand up? That might be a problem given he “tweaked” his calf again in the Bengals’ loss to the Ravens. What’s more troubling is that Burrow struggled in Week 2 while only being pressured on 18.6 percent of his dropbacks, which made him the third-least pressured QB of the week. We’ve all watched Burrow be masterful within this offense. When that Burrow will return seems like anyone’s guess.
This isn’t the Trevor Lawrence anyone expected coming off a very strong back half of 2022. A refresher, Lawrence ranked fourth in the league in Weeks 10-18 in the following categories: EPA per dropback (0.16), passer rating (103.8) and completion percentage (68.5). He’s nowhere near the first two rates and down to a 63.0 percent completion percentage through two weeks.
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Deshaun Watson and Kenny Pickett ranked at the bottom league in Week 2 and in the overall rankings. Quite the quandary for the Cleveland Browns and the Pittsburgh Steelers, respectively, given both quarterbacks are the present and the future for the franchises. It’s hard to say which one presents the bigger concern since both have struggled. But Watson’s 55.1 completion percentage (31st overall) and ginormous price tag probably ring the alarm louder in Cleveland. Especially since there’s been no real progress for Watson from Year 1 to Year 2 with the Browns.
Week 3 EPA matchups
team | DefEPA/DB | Week 3 opp | EPA/DB |
---|---|---|---|
0.52 (1) | Ryan Tannehill | -0.17 (26) | |
0.35 (2) | Joshua Dobbs | 0.01 (16) | |
0.22 (3) | Jordan Love | 0.33 (2) | |
0.18 (4) | Jimmy Garoppolo | 0.15 (10) | |
0.17 (5) | Daniel Jones | -0.10 (22) | |
0.14 (6) | Geno Smith | 0.15 (9) | |
0.14 (7) | Sam Howell | -0.01 (17) | |
0.12 (8) | Justin Fields | -0.14 (25) | |
0.12 (9) | Anthony Richardson* | -0.07 (21) | |
0.07 (10) | C.J. Stroud | -0.05 (20) | |
0.07 (11) | Lamar Jackson | 0.08 (14) | |
0.06 (12) | Justin Herbert | 0.16 (6) | |
0.04 (13) | Josh Allen | 0.12 (12) | |
0.03 (14) | Jalen Hurts | -0.13 (24) | |
0.02 (15) | Derek Carr | -0.03 (19) | |
-0.01 (16) | Baker Mayfield | 0.16 (7) | |
-0.01 (17) | Matthew Stafford | 0.17 (4) | |
-0.02 (18) | Zach Wilson | -0.24 (27) | |
-0.04 (19) | Russell Wilson | 0.11 (13) | |
-0.05 (20) | Dak Prescott | 0.20 (3) | |
-0.07 (21) | Jared Goff | 0.17 (5) | |
-0.09 (22) | Trevor Lawrence | -0.29 (30) | |
-0.14 (23) | Desmond Ridder | -0.02 (18) | |
-0.15 (24) | Joe Burrow | -0.26 (29) | |
-0.15 (25) | Deshaun Watson | -0.34 (31) | |
-0.15 (26) | Mac Jones | -0.12 (23) | |
-0.29 (27) | Kenny Pickett | -0.41 (32) | |
-0.32 (28) | Brock Purdy | 0.16 (8) | |
-0.34 (29) | Tua Tagovailoa | 0.45 (1) | |
-0.35 (30) | Patrick Mahomes | 0.01 (15) | |
-0.40 (31) | Bryce Young** | -0.25 (28) | |
-0.49 (32) | Kirk Cousins | 0.13 (11) |
*Richardson’s Week 3 status is undetermined after leaving Week 2 with a concussion.
**Young (ankle) is out for the Week 3 matchup against the Seahawks. Andy Dalton will replace Young. Dalton produced a 0.02 EPA rate and 95.2 passer rating with the Saints last season.
(Photo: Julio Aguilar / Getty Images)
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