On the divisive topic of whether to sign Tee Higgins to a contract extension along with the anticipated market-topping deals for Joe Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase, the core of the discussion comes back to value.
How much value could the Bengals gain by signing Higgins for an expected $25 million per season in comparison with distributing that money elsewhere? What would an eventual departure of Higgins mean for Chase? The combination of Higgins, Chase and Tyler Boyd made for arguably the best receiver trio in the game the last two years partially because of the different skill set each possesses.
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I wanted to dive into the impact of Chase on Higgins and vice versa to see if any predictive elements could be uncovered (and thanks to a fantastic mailbag submission by Ed. M.).
Latest #Bengals mailbag:
📝 Contractually obligated Burrow, Mixon contract questions
🏈 An offensive tweak number to track
💰 Potential free agents to sign?
🍦 Ice cream truck orders
https://t.co/On9CQxcz0q
— Paul Dehner Jr. (@pauldehnerjr) June 30, 2023
What I found surprised me and partially swayed my opinion on the Higgins extension discussion.
First, let’s look at the results.
Last year, in the regular season and playoffs, Burrow played chunks of time without Chase and Higgins. Higgins played 16 games but essentially was out of three because of injury with limited snaps in two others.
Chase missed four games with a hip injury.
The Bengals were, notably, 3-1 without Chase and kick-started their 10-game win streak once withstanding a beating on Halloween night in Cleveland. In fact, two of their most dominant offensive performances of the season came without Chase in a 37-30 win at Pittsburgh and 42-21 drubbing of the Panthers. Higgins caught the game winner of a 20-16 victory in Tennessee.
Burrow goes deep to Higgins! @Bengals take a 20-13 lead.
📺: #CINvsTEN on CBS
📱: Stream on NFL+ https://t.co/cGelCPQevg pic.twitter.com/IjoHltNZnG
— NFL (@NFL) November 27, 2022
The three games with Higgins hurt (Week 1 against Pittsburgh, Week 5 at Baltimore, Week 14 against Cleveland) resulted in two losses and never crossed 23 points. Yes, the level of opponent and time of year cloud the situation, but a more nuanced view illustrates conclusions.
I filtered every snap played last year where Higgins was on the field without Chase as well as every snap where Chase was on the field without Higgins. I then ran efficiency and usage analytics to judge how life changed for both.
2022 snaps Higgins with/without Chase
Higgins stat | No Chase | With Chase |
---|---|---|
Routes | 155 | 499 |
Rec-Yards-TD | 27-382-2 | 60-795-6 |
Targets/Route | 25% | 18.2% |
Yards/Route | 2.46 | 1.59 |
EPA/target | 0.39 | 0.32 |
Yards/Rec | 14.3 | 13.3 |
Rec% | 68.4% | 65.9% |
2022 snaps Chase with/without Higgins
Chase stat | No Higgins | With Higgins |
---|---|---|
Routes | 143 | 499 |
Rec-Yards-TD | 28-328-2 | 79-938-9 |
Targets/Route | 31.5% | 23.4% |
Yards/Route | 2.29 | 1.88 |
EPA/target | 0.08 | 0.3 |
Yards/reception | 11.7 | 11.9 |
Rec% | 62.2% | 67.5% |
1. I wanted to use a larger sample size and include 2021, but the offense changed dramatically as teams adjusted to Chase breaking onto the scene as a rookie and both were healthy and playing together the majority of the second half of the Super Bowl season.
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2. The volume numbers make sense here. Both saw almost the same target percentage increases without the other on the field. Obvious and understandable, including Chase entering the rarified 30 percent target rate without Higgins. That accounts for the connected increase in yards per route run by each when the other leaves the field.
3. The catch percentage and yards per reception numbers stayed stable for both players regardless of the other’s presence. Dual participation didn’t change the baseline of who they are when the ball headed in their direction.
4. The most revealing conclusion here lives in expected points added per target (EPA/target). Chase’s efficiency dropped dramatically without Higgins on the field, from 0.3 to .08. Higgins’ EPA per target rose slightly from .32 to .39. Higgins thrived without Chase on the field. For reference, Higgins’ 2.46 yards per route run without Chase on the field would have been tied for fourth among all qualifying receivers last year (minimum 35 targets).
2022 yards per route run leaders
Rank | Player | Team | YRR | Targets |
---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Dolphins | 3.07 | 181 | |
2 | Vikings | 2.55 | 185 | |
3 | Eagles | 2.47 | 158 | |
4 | Dolphins | 2.46 | 121 | |
4 | Bengals | 2.46 | 39 | |
6 | Raiders | 2.45 | 168 | |
7 | Saints | 2.42 | 114 | |
8 | Rams | 2.40 | 95 | |
8 | Lions | 2.40 | 139 | |
8 | Bills | 2.40 | 166 | |
11 | Cowboys | 2.39 | 167 | |
12 | Bengals | 2.29 | 47 |
The small sample size of Higgins (39 targets) and Chase (47) places an asterisk next to those numbers, but the data point provides more ammunition for those arguing Higgins should be viewed as a No. 1 receiver (hello, David Mulugheta). When needed to be a go-to No. 1 last year, he delivered.
5. To be clear, this data set doesn’t mean I’m arguing Higgins is a better receiver than Chase. What Chase provides on the field, his versatility, run after catch, attention drawn and at times unstoppable connection with Burrow tops any weapon on the entire Cincinnati roster. Full stop.
Chase will reset the receiver market when he signs his extension (eligible next offseason), topping his buddy Justin Jefferson (eligible right now). The Bengals would be fools to allow the situation to conclude any other way.

6. The lesson buried in these data points, for me, would be how much more efficient the presence of Higgins made Chase. Secondly, how Higgins functioned at an elite level as the designated top target on the field. This adds to the case that the gravity drawn by Chase is not the reason for Higgins’ success. Offensive consistency and winning percentage most closely connect with passing efficiency more than any other metric. Higgins brings an invaluable resource to not only elevate his partner but offer an activated insurance policy should the offense need to function without Option 1A.
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7. Where this affected my viewpoint was I didn’t expect to see the efficiency numbers shift in different directions without each other and would have thought Chase to be the one to thrive more as the lone target.
GO DEEPER
Bengals benefitting from stars volunteering to put work over contract talks
I still believe over a larger sample, Chase would end up with better numbers when asked to carry the load solo.
The attention paid to Higgins should be talked about when addressing what’s helped make Chase great as much as, if not more than, suggesting attention to Chase helped make Higgins great.
Keep this value in mind when considering entering a world where the Burrow-Chase-Higgins trio banks more than $100 million per year.
(Photo: Aaron Doster / Associated Press)
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